EDOTLOCCA’s Corner: 2016.1 – Pre Draft Maths ‘n’ Stuff

Well, it sure has been a while! And now, just as some of you were no doubt wondering whether life was worth living in the dark abyss of the offseason, your EDOTLOCCA has returned! But it gets better, last season you sieved through pages of mindless, subjective ramblings for the occasional worthwhile conclusion, this time round I can offer you actual facts! Having learned from the true master of Excel, Team Ambassador Sherwood, I have devised a series of complex formulas and worked out who will prevail in this year’s draft, with maths!

Disclaimer: This will be the only edition that isn’t mindless, subjective ramblings. Also, this edition is largely mindless, subjective ramblings.
Anyway, on with the show.

Modal

Rights, let’s get the jargon out of the way. For those of you who have forgotten your primary school maths: ‘A number that appears most often is the mode’ (mathsisfun.com, 2016). I have trawled back through every draft in recorded LOC history looking for trends amongst the picks in the first 5 rounds. Looking at the modal picks, some interesting trends were uncovered:

Round 1: Every current coach in the LOC will modally pick a RB in Round 1, except one. Coach Barnes will more frequently pick a WR to start his roster.

QBs: Half of current coaches will modally pick a QB in Rounds 1-5, Coaches: Stubbs Sr., Burdett, Sherwood, Nunn, Wells and Allen. Of these, Coach Stubbs Sr. and Coach Nunn are the most trigger happy, taking a QB in the second round on average.

Balance: Three quarters of the league’s coaches will have at least two RBs and two WRs rostered by Round 5. Coach Wells and Nunn will only have one WR by this point however and Coach Burdett will only have one RB.

Back to backs: Five coaches will modally back up their first round pick with a second rounder from the same position. Coaches Stubbs Jr., Merritt, Nathwani and Wells will all go RB-RB, Coach Barnes will go WR-WR.

Maximum

But where is the fun in knowing averages without knowing the extremes? Again, I’ve pre-researched all the jargon for you: ‘The largest value is the maximum’ (mathsisfun.com, 2016). Here I have rated positions based on the modal picks, with RBs being the lowest, then WRs, QBs, TEs etc., and here is what we found:

Tried and Trusted: Four coaches have never drafted any position other than a RB in Round 1. That’s Coaches Burdett, Nunn, Nathwani and Allen.

TEs: Seven current coaches have called for a TE in Rounds 1-5. That’s Coaches Stubbs Sr. Stubbs Jr., Leach, Sherwood, Nunn, Nathwani and Wells. Coaches Stubbs Sr. and Leach have even ventured into Round 1 for their TEs.

QBs: Every Coach has at some point taken a QB in Rounds 1-5. Coach Allen is the only coach not to have drafted a QB in Rounds 1-4 however.

DEFs: Yes really, DEFs. Two Coaches in LOC history have drafted DEFs in Rounds 1-5. Coach Stubbs Sr. in Round 5 and, not to be outdone, Coach Merritt in Round 4 – I’m sure we can all enjoy that little nugget.

Teams

So, we have delved into the trends, but I know what you are all thinking, if only we had a simulated draft to put to all these figures. Well, ta-dah! Okay, you can’t see it here, but if you click the other link posted everyone’s first 5 round picks have been predicted from coach’s tendencies and based on current ADP (Average Draft Positions) from NFL.com. Cash4Gould were simulated using a modal pick from all rookie coaches.

(Click the link now, or this bit won’t make much sense)

General thoughts? Coach Nunn has assembled a true set of Galacticos with the depth of the Cleveland Browns’ practise squad, Coach Allen is tipping the Texans for Superbowl LI, rookie coaches may be better at picking balanced rosters than the rest of us and Coach Nathwani still loves suspended RBs (for some reason). I could go on, but remember this edition is about facts, not mindless, subjective ramblings.

Bold Predictions

Now, usually I finish the article with a series of bold predictions based on the matchups of the coming week. The more astute amongst you may realise there are no matchups in the coming week however. Far be it for me to let my fan base down, I have thought of a way around this. I have selected 5 names from the simulated draft above that will actually go to the listed team. Will I get any of them right? I doubt it, but it is a reason for me to say tune in next week to find out! See you in the regular season gentlemen!