The Final - Last Chance for Stats!

Despite my tardiness last week I stand by my podcast prediction, it will be Tom's Tyrants taking the victory... Well unless the 9/20 roll comes up for Ollie! So really we're still all over the place. But either way here are the numbers!

Tom's Tyrants is predicted to beat Burdettinators in 55.62% of games. Now an important note here is that this is based on a 3% drop off in weighting for each week that passes i.e. week 10 is now valued at 85% whereas week 1 is valued at a measly 55% of it's original value. If we increase the weighting drop off we do see a bit of a shift in the numbers.

Before we get to that, here's a pretty chart for Chris!

Burdettinators in Blue vs Tom's Tyrants in Red

And here's a breakdown of each player's scores based on the 3% reduction scale.

Player	Average Points	Standard Deviation	Team
Baker Mayfield	16.31	4.69	Tom's Tyrants
Chris Herndon	4.95	3.40	Tom's Tyrants
Damien Williams	9.11	9.04	Tom's Tyrants
Dante Pettis	11.06	7.12	Tom's Tyrants
Davante Adams	14.72	4.15	Tom's Tyrants
Emmanuel Sanders	10.21	6.17	Tom's Tyrants
James Conner	17.63	9.59	Tom's Tyrants
Kenny Golladay	9.17	5.39	Tom's Tyrants
Mark Ingram	10.53	7.47	Tom's Tyrants
Melvin Gordon	20.63	5.17	Tom's Tyrants
Miami Dolphins	7.86	6.91	Tom's Tyrants
Nick Chubb	12.35	9.71	Tom's Tyrants
Philip Rivers	19.32	4.02	Tom's Tyrants
Phillip Lindsay	13.31	6.83	Tom's Tyrants
New England Patriots	7.85	5.30	Tom's Tyrants
Alshon Jeffery	8.91	6.17	Burdettinators
Atlanta Falcons	4.97	5.51	Burdettinators
Christian McCaffrey	19.07	8.64	Burdettinators
Deshaun Watson	19.52	7.97	Burdettinators
Ian Thomas	3.09	2.28	Burdettinators
Jacksonville Jaguars	6.95	4.77	Burdettinators
Jameis Winston	16.71	8.23	Burdettinators
Mason Crosby	8.55	4.53	Burdettinators
Mike Williams	9.95	7.62	Burdettinators
Robby Anderson	7.33	7.03	Burdettinators
Saquon Barkley	18.67	7.80	Burdettinators
Stefon Diggs	11.16	6.93	Burdettinators
Tarik Cohen	11.02	6.89	Burdettinators
Tennessee Titans	6.85	4.94	Burdettinators
Trey Burton	6.49	5.29	Burdettinators

The below graph is based on a 6% drop off in weighting per game but Tom's consistency somehow manages to counterbalance the Burdettinator's meteoric route to the playoffs. Tom's Tyrants are still projected to win at 53.796%! It narrows the gap but Tom's still the one to beat.

As above

Good luck to our finalists and Merry Christmas to all!