2018 - 3's a crowd, but 4 is wild

We are entering the penultimate week of the season, and with 2 teams already clinching playoffs, with another (according to analytics) also a lock, that means it's all about the wildcard for the last 2 weeks. Join Commissioner Stubbs and Co Host Chris Leach in looking back at the pivotal week 12 games, and examining the ever more crucial week 13 games.

Playoffs 2018 Week 13!

Due to popular demand (thanks Nige) and personal interest we are back at it again with the playoff predictions!

You may remember that previously the predictions were based on a series of probabilities that each individual would be another but this year we have stepped it up another notch.

In order to predict which team will beat which (and how frequently) I have calculated the weighted average (reducing value by 3% per week) score of each player and the standard deviation of that score (excluding 0 score weeks). I then use that to pick the best player - according to the model - for each position.

For example, if you have Todd Gurley and Rashaad Penny their respective averages and standard deviations (Gurley: 23.13/7.30, Penny:4.88/4.95) would be used to calculate on average how often Gurley's score would be higher than Penny's and if Gurley scores higher in 90% whereas Penny is higher in 10% of cases then Gurley would be chosen for RB slot 1 and so on.

The formula for this assessment is:

Mu being the average
Sigma being the standard deviation

          μ:=μ1−μ2          σ2:=σ21+σ22.
          1 - ( - μ / σ)

The derivation/explanation of which can be found here:

https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/40224/probability-of-a-point-taken-from-a-certain-normal-distribution-will-be-greater 

The assumptions are that the values are normally distributed and independent (since there's no way I'm deriving the covariance of players on opposing fantasy teams who share real-life teams/matches).


This was rolled up on a team basis to give you your team's average points and standard deviation. The same method used above is then used to compare teams and calculate on average how often team 1 will outperform team 2.

Here are some example charts to show how team's performances stack up against each other (blue for team 1, red for team 2):

Gridiron Gang vs Patistan

Turn Down for Watt vs IKSAN

Tom's Tyrants vs Forge Flyers

As you can see, some teams have tighter distributions representing consistency whilst others have a wider spread of results. Sometimes (as in the case of Tom) this can be a good thing for overall scoring if the average is still high. Other times it leads to a bust, see Naithan's season.

The resulting scores were then plugged into the trusty monte carlo simulator to calculate the chances of each team making the playoffs. Here are the results:

Team	Playoff Odds
The Dream Team	100.00%
Andy Dalton Red Zone	100.00%
Tom’s Tyrants	100.00%
The Tuckfards	84.92%
Burdettinators	5.24%
Obi Wan Ganobi	3.80%
Forge Flyers	2.76%
Bear Necessities	1.92%
IKSAN	1.24%
Turn Down for Watt	0.00%
Patistan	0.00%
Gridiron Gang	0.00%

As you can probably tell I should have done this earlier in the year to increase the suspense. What we see is that the 3 teams topping their division are through to the playoffs (unsurprisingly) and The Tuckfards with their "points for" and game in hand lead are big favourites to join them. But hey, there's still a 1.24% chance I'll be there with them...

So the more interesting question at this point is how will each of the teams fair according to historic performance.

These are each of the matchups for the playoffs (team 1 in blue, team 2 in red and odds edge over/under opponent from team 1's perspective):

Tom's Tyrants vs The Tuckfards (+10.58%)

The Dream Team vs ADRZ (+8.26%)

ADRZ vs The Tuckfards (+0.68%)

ADRZ vs Tom's Tyrants (-9.28%)

The Dream Team vs The Tuckfards (+10.96%)

The Dream Team vs Tom's Tyrants (-1.16%)

As you can see the really tough game as it stands will be The Dream Team vs Tom's Tyrants but that's only if they make it to the final and with only roughly a 10% edge on their opponents it's very possible that we will see The Tuckfards or ADRZ or both in the final. The predictions will also evolve over the coming weeks based on each team and player's performance. With such a tight race for the final I will probably do another roundup of predictions in week 15 before the 4 teams above play. And hey, there's a chance that Phil's team will score 20 points and all of this will fall apart!

If you have any questions or want to look into the data let me know.

If you want to see the code it's here:


https://bitbucket.org/snippets/LOC_Code/Gea48X

It did require a bit of manual assistance since they discontinued the API for the fantasy site so I just copied out the taken players and their respective fantasy teams.

2018 - At long last, some clarity!

It took 11 weeks, but we finally have a playoff picture that isn't clear as mud! Week 11 proved to be a crucial one in the LOC, one which Commissioner Stubbs and Co Host Leach will give you great insight on - but just because we have clarity doesn't mean it's all set in stone yet. The dynamic duo will also give you the low down on the most important week 12 match ups.

2018 Power Rankings: Week 12

2018 Power Rankings: Week 12

Hello, hello, hello, how are we all? No doubt looking forwards to a healthy dose of Thursday football, which is certainly worth giving thanks for. But before you get on to all of that, you have the pleasure of enjoying yet another helping of the power rankings and, as we round into Week 12 we have two whole teams in a position to secure a playoff spot! After wandering, seemingly lost, for so long, we are finally reaching the light and, with only two teams eliminated thus far, the end of the season promises to keep you on the edge of your seat! Onwards…

12. Patistan (2-9-0) – Down 1

Speaking of eliminated teams, Patistan have started trending back in the wrong direction after a brief run of decent weeks. Fitzmagic has left the building, along with the city, state, world… he’s gone basically, Johnson is injured and lots of the teams promise has dwindled again.

11. Gridiron Gang (1-10-0) – Up 1

Credit where credit is due, this team is no longer the worst in the league. Roster wise, they probably aren’t second worst either, having come an average QB away from a huge upset win, but as everyone above them is still in the playoff hunt, they can’t go any higher. Fully healthy, this team was always going to make some noise, shame it took them over half a season to get there…

10. Dalvin and the Chipmunks (5-6-0) – Down 1

A second consecutive week with two players scoring 0 points, at least they were active this time! Dalvin and the Chipmunks couldn’t pull off the same miracle as Shake it Goff though, picking up an L this week, perhaps the constant flux of the franchise identity is starting to hurt performances?

9. Obi Wan Ganobi (5-6-0) – Up 1

They have snuck up a spot after a win and an impressive point total led by their MVP, Mahomes. Poor Drew Brees (QB3 overall) has barely had a look in this year, despite playing some magical football of his own. He’ll get a Week 12 run out with KC on a bye, just in time to play the Falcons… it’s almost like Coach Gardner planned it.

8. Burdettinators (5-6-0) – No Change

Clinging on after scraping through a must win matchup, but they are running out of time quicker than teams higher up the rankings. The RB5, 8 and 12 are all on this roster, three RB1s in our 12 team league, they should be a bigger part of the playoff picture than the glimmer they are currently represented by.

7. Forge Flyers (6-5-0) – No Change

As Coach Leach said, he did get Mahomes’d; he wasn’t the first and likely won’t be the last. Still hanging in that crazy division after another decent week, but decent isn’t going to get this team back to the promised land. They need someone to step up, but looking at the roster, I’m not sure who is going to volunteer.

6. IKSAN (6-5-0) – No Change

Wow, they sure did prove how much the White trade meant to them in Week 11 with only 3.6 points accounted for by RBs. The good news is that White won’t have any more bye weeks though. With another loss leaving them at the bottom of their division this team could sure do with a motivational speech right now. They have the players but, thanks to the low points total, more or less need to win out from here.

5. Bear Necessities (6-5-0) – No Change

Two losses in a row have got to hurt a team that has gone from division leader a few weeks ago to wildcard hopeful now. After solidifying their RB corps early in the season, Bear Necessities now find themselves with one of the weakest WR rooms in the league, even waiver wire gem Boyd has slowed down a bit now. Crucial matchup against ADRZ this week and this is definitely the best week of the season for it, it’s statement time.

4. ADRZ (7-4-0) – No Change

They may have put up the high score on the week, but it looked far from a sure thing until the highest scoring MNF game of all time. They also lost Howard for the season and that has left another hole is a roster still struggling to fill RB2 on a weekly basis. They remain less complete than the teams above them, but they are just as dangerous on a weekly basis.

3. The Tuckfards (7-4-0) – No Change

They avoided their self-appointed ‘trap game’, although it was far from their best performance. I have often given Coach Merritt’s starting roster credit for being one of the strongest top to bottom in the league, it is now time for the backups to prove their worth without his ever reliant Rams.a

2. The Dream Team (8-3-0) – No Change

A couple of weeks ago, I questioned how they would do when Yeldon and Murray started to lose touches to returning starters. Well, some smart waiver wire additions in Adams and Edwards look to have filled the holes, and even Barber is still refusing to not be a thing. It was just another solid outing for a team that hasn’t been below 100 points since Week 3.

1. Tom’s Tyrants (8-3-0) – No Change

And to wrap up possibly the most boring edition of the Power Rankings to date… another non-mover! The Dream Team have closed the gap at the top for sure, the Tyrants were off their game in Week 11, they could do with a few big performances from their bigger players this week to settle the nerves again.

2018 Power Rankings: Week 11

2018 Power Rankings: Week 11

Evening all, welcome to yet another edition of the Power Rankings! You join us in the thick of the playoff hunt, where most teams are doing there best to build up a head of steam and others are starting to bow out gracefully. Well, except for the ‘closer than two coats of paint’ Portsmouth division that is. Earlier in the season, this division tied it up at 3-2 and no one could believe it then, well now they’re all at 6-4, tripping over each other again. Interesting though, going back to the division aligning event; the losing pair have ended up in the toughest division, proving not only that it is worth playing to win at the yearly event, but also that we might actually be predictable after all…hmmm. Rankings time:

12. Gridiron Gang (1-9-0) – No change

They’ve only gone and done it! The big zero is gone and we can only imagine the wave of relief that Coach Stubbs Jr. is feeling. Fournette made a huge difference on his return, but he also averaged a pretty horrible 2.2 YPC, so I’m waiting for signs he is going to be his old self before Gridiron Gang can move off the bottom. But they won’t care about that, after posting their first 100 point game since Week 3, they are just happy to be a competitive opponent again.

11. Patistan (2-8-0) – No Change

This was the first big opportunity to make it to 3 wins and avoid the joint title of worst season of all time (2-12), but didn’t come that close after falling just short of 100 points. The good news is that the are starting to find some consistent contributors, with Cooper and McCoy looking like starters for the first time all season.

10. Obi Wan Ganobi (4-6-0) – No Change

I feel a little bit sorry for Coach Gardner. After getting knocked earlier in the season for getting lucky wins against low scoring teams, they have now started doing the opposite. Losing when you score 137 points is never fair, but the flame may have just gone out on their last playoff hope. However, now that they are healthy and through their bye weeks, no one will want to play them.

9. Shake it Goff (5-5-0) – No Change

Wow, talk about luck, and not Andrew this time. Starting two inactive players and just clinching the win is almost impressive… almost. Its shows the spine of this team has the ability to blow any opponent out of the water on any given week, but replacements for injuries/byes are getting even ropier, if any replacements are found at all that is. Kupp going to IR hurts.

8. Burdettinators (4-6-0) – Down 1

Yep, you have to take opportunities like that. Playing a team down two starters and having your RB2 go over 30 points, this should have been an easy win to keep Coach Burdett firmly in the wildcard hunt. The roster is better than the teams below them, but they need to win out from here, and that still may not be enough.

-----------------------

7. Forge Flyers (6-4-0) – Up 1

See that line above us? Whilst nothing is set in stone, this feels like a pretty good divide for teams still in the playoff hunt. Forge Flyers very much are in the hunt. They still rank a little lower than some of their competitors as their team is lacking the star power, the really big names, and we now (finally) know for sure – Bell. Having said that, they are consistent scorers, they are tied for the division lead and they are slowly climbing the rankings, The Flyers are heating up.

6. IKSAN (6-4-0) – No Change

And as I've said, this week they weren’t all firing. The RBs dropped back to the early season version and it cost them the win. They stick where they are in the rankings as there is simply so much talent on this roster; Rodgers, Julio, Hopkins, White are all capable of winning a game week. The questionable waiver budget allocation isn’t helping much however.

5. Bear Necessities (6-4-0) – No Change

How critical could that Week 10 game be to the Bear Necessities' eventual playoff hopes? Not all their normal performers turned up for them unfortunately and they lost the key matchup, but David Johnson may have just gotten hot people. Yeah, that DJ2K chap, so the warning signals have been sent to the rest of the league.

4. ADRZ (6-4-0) – Down 2

Another outrageously key Week 10 game, ADRZ found themselves on the wrong side of the score line and, as a result, have been dragged into the midst of a 4 way battle. In answer to the question posed by Coach Wells: No, I do not believe ADRZ have found their RB2 in Mike Davis, who will most likely be third in line for carries on Thursday night. Keep searching.

3. The Tuckfards (6-4-0) – Up 1

Big win for Coach Merritt, it would have been remarkable if they had dropped to the bottom of their division with a loss but they held their nerve. They’re back into the top 3, as current leader of the 6-4ers, on merit of having simply the biggest of big players. I’ve said it before, but Gurley and Thomas are game changers and, crucially, consistent. It gives The Tuckfards a very high weekly floor.

2. The Dream Team (7-3-0) – Up 1

Seriously good time for Zach Ertz to put in his biggest performance of the season. I could be wrong, but The Dream Team’s starting line up feels like one of the most variable in the league, yet they are consistently putting the right players in to grab the win. Joint 1^st on record, 2^nd on points, The Dream Team have hit new heights for the year.

1. Tom’s Tyrants (7-3-0) – No Change

Maintaining their position at the top, they are approaching the level of having a stranglehold on their division. But they needed everything they had this week and would have fallen short but for the longest TD of the year (92 yards rush from Chubb) and the highest scoring single play of the year (21.64 points Rivers to Gordon 66 yard TD pass).

2018 Power Rankings: Week 10

2018 Power Rankings: Week 10

So, happy Sunday everyone! That isn’t an opener I get to use often, but it is a good thing for two whole reasons: 1) There is plenty of football to sink your teeth into today. 2) Only two more days until your next instalment of the Power Rankings! That second part is especially prudent if you are not a fan of your position this week although, as always, you can of course send any complaints to the EDOTLOCCA HQ. As the coaches of the LOC, I know I don’t need to remind any of you the contact details, so on with the rankings!

12. Gridiron Gang (0-9-0) – No Change

We have our answer; Thielen’s 100 yard game record was no match for Gridiron Gang’s winless streak. Look, everyone knows this is a lost season, but Fournette is turning in full practises and with him comes the cleanest bill of health Gridiron Gang have had all season, there is still time to save some face.

11. Patistan (2-7-0) – No Change

Speaking of lost seasons, no one said Patistan were suddenly on their way to the playoffs, but with a second consecutive 110+ point week they were arguably an active TE away from win 3. This roster’s arrow is definitely trending upwards, they are going to stop someone making the playoffs, I guarantee it.

10. Obi Wan Ganobi (4-5-0) – No Change

Uhh, I wanted to move this team up, they put up a decent score and gave a real contender all they could handle. But. Over half their points came from QB and DST, only two other players made double digits. Admittedly, they have recently taken up the mantle of most injury-riddled team, but they’re running out of time for a playoff push.

9. Guns N Rosen (4-5-0) – No Change

They just hold onto their spot because I believe this is a better team than the showing we got last week and now they’ve got their key Colts back. I mentioned that this team was at the mercy of their coach during bye weeks but most of their tougher weeks are past them. Side note, what a boring power rankings so far, no changers to speak of.

8. Forge Flyers (5-4-0) – No Change

Okay, okay, I challenged Coach Leach to prove his team to me and he picked up the win. 75 points will rarely bump you up the rankings though and I think I am going to need further convincing. This upcoming week, they get to play their old rival, Coach Sherwood, win again and I promise I’ll move the Flyers up. …Still no changes, I must be getting good at this!

7. Burdettinators (4-5-0) – Down 2

Okay, someone had to move. Otherwise you, the loyal fan base, might start questioning my integrity. This team has been up and down the middle rankings for a while now and, although they were struggling with byes in Week 9, they proved unable to hang with one of the big boys. I have liked this roster for a while now, with

6. IKSAN (6-3-0) – Up 1

Probably the biggest yo-yo team in the rankings at this stage, I can never seem to get them quite right. They just put up their biggest score on the season, are sitting pretty on a 6-3 record and they have plenty of firepower on the roster, it just seems rare that they are all firing as one. They will need more consistency to get into the playoffs.

5. Bear Necessities (6-3-0) – Up 1

I said I was waiting to see how they coped with their killer bye week; well they coped. Putting up over 100 points, in those circumstances, is worthy of a boost up the rankings. I am still not convinced that they contain the weapons of teams above them, but I have been wrong about this team all season, so why stop now.

4. The Tuckfards (5-4-0) – Down 3

This drop looks more drastic than it potentially is. They are still a very talented team, they just seem to have a few players going a bit cold. What was consistent through the first few weeks has been up and down of late and they will need to right the ship quickly as they currently sit in the 6^th seed. Still the 3^rd highest scorers however, and the patience with Olsen looks to be paying off, smart pick up there.

3. The Dream Team (6-3-0) – Up 1

They have proved time and again that they have the roster to hang with the big shots in the LOC and finally bust into the top 3. Consistently finding RB2s has been the success of this team and Coach Nathwani deserves credit for it, but at Yeldon and Murray face the end of the workhorse roles with bigger fish returning to the fold, that challenge looms larger. The severity of Green’s injury could make or break their season.

2. ADRZ (6-3-0) – Up 1

A modest boost after yet another weekly high score – 3 in the last 4 weeks! Keeping them from the top is the level of competition in their division, they and The Tuckfards have constantly yo-yoed for the top spot, IKSAN are currently level on record and Forge Flyers are far from out of it. This one is going to the wire, ADRZ will need to keep piling on the points to stay on the front foot.

1. Tom’s Tyrants (6-3-0) – Up 1

This team has been the no. 1 seed for a few weeks now and they finally make it to the top of the rankings. Unlike some of their close rivals, they rarely share the top weekly score mantle yet their consistency has been impressive. Crucially, they are two games ahead of the rest of their division – no other division leader is even half a game ahead.